brushed metal background
Net Load Forecasting Prize logo

Net Load Forecasting Prize

The American-Made Net Load Forecasting Prize is designed to incentivize innovators to develop probabilistic models that predict amounts of net load a day in advance of the forecast and promote the adoption of probabilistic forecasts and evaluation tools for those forecasts. This prize offers up to $600,000 in cash prizes, with three anticipated winners and three anticipated runners-up.

Raising Forecasting Awareness and Standards

The U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Energy Technologies Office, in co-sponsorship with EPRI, is launching the Net Load Forecasting Prize to:

  • Increase stakeholder awareness of the state of the art in net load forecasting.
  • Demonstrate the feasibility of fair and high-quality evaluations of probabilistic net load forecasts using a publicly available open-source platform.
  • Promote the use of probabilistic forecast models and an industry-common evaluation platform with transparent metrics and specifications for probabilistic net load forecasts.

As co-sponsor of the prize, EPRI will provide historical net load data for competitors to train forecasting models and provide operational support for the forecast evaluation platform used during the evaluation phase of the prize.

Learn More & Start Competing
a graphic illustration of people being active in a park, with a city skyline in the background.

Competition Structure and Prizes

Every day for four weeks (28 consecutive days), competitors submit forecast model results for at least four locations in the United States to the Solar Forecast Arbiter platform. This platform will be used to assess the model's forecasting performance. The Solar Forecast Arbiter will compare how the forecasts perform to a benchmark forecast using a time-of-day persistence ensemble model.

The Net Load Forecasting Prize offers up to $600,000 in cash prizes. Administrators anticipate awarding up to six teams—three winners and three runners-up—depending on performance of the competitors. See the official rules for full details.

Number of Anticipated RewardsPrizes
WinnersUp to 3 anticipated cash prizes1st - $200,000
2nd - $150,000
3rd - $100,000
Runners-upUp to 3 anticipated cash prizes4th, 5th, and 6th each receive $50,000
Join the Competition

What is Net Load Forecasting?

Net load refers to the difference between true load—the total electricity demand of the loads—and the electricity generation in the distribution system from resources such as solar and other distributed generators.

Learn more about net load forecasting in the official rules.

Who is Eligible to Compete?

Institutions, companies, and nonprofit organizations based in the United States are able to compete. In keeping with the goal of growing a community of innovators, competitors are encouraged to form diverse, multidisciplinary teams.

View the official rules for full eligibility requirements.

Solutions that help shape the future

Are you an organization looking to advance the solar forecasting industry? You belong here. Join the American-Made Net Load Forecasting Prize to get started!

Start Competing